Archive for the ‘Poker Theory’ Category

November 2012 Results/December Goals

Posted: November 30, 2012 in Poker Theory

Tilt hit its highest point this month just before me getting staked so although I managed to play a bit of NL50 the results at the beginning of the month wernt that great mainly for that reason.

November2012

This is my graph since starting my stake and also after working with Elliot to reduce my tilt:-

Novemberafter1311

 

Pretty happy with how things have gone from that point although getting volume in has been tough simply because we are so busy at work at the moment.

December Goals

Main goals for December are to keep working on my tilt issues and a lot of the Poker will take care of itself. I also want to repay the faith a couple of people have shown in me and thats going to be by working hard and playing good poker.

October 2012 Results

Posted: November 1, 2012 in Poker Theory

Again not really a bad month results wise but as I have mentioned quite a few times I am playing like quite a big fish at the moment.

Im hoping finding out how much i have on full Tilt along with the motivation of a new care may improve my play this month but we will see.

Losing sucks.
/thread.

 

But seriously it seems that every time I withdraw I hit a weird downswing where I see all kinds of weird shit happening where I cant hit a flop and villains can sole read me like a boss.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thats what my graph looks like since I made the fateful decision to withdraw which is basically all of this months play. So its just over 6 buyins and probably my biggest downswing at this level so far so no really need to hit the panic stations just yet.

Anyone taking a look at my stats can see why Im getting hammered on, 30% 3bet success rate, 25% flop cbet success, 33% fold against a flop raise, 31% WTSD and finally a W$SD of 43%. Talk about fishy or what.
I guess I couldnt run like god forever though so time to get back to basics(which is hard when I cant play less than 20% Vpip no matter how hard I try) and start doing the little things right and the rest will hopefully fall in to place.

Still not playing a lot due to time restrictions but tonight I had my first coaching session with KnoxItAll who is a HU Poker specialist. I am a little different in what I am wanting from the coaching as Im not really wanting to get in to playing HU that much because Im not sure my tilt problems could handle it but I want to get very good when starting tables and playing shorthanded and Jesse has a `Name Your Price` coaching offer on at the moment and I took the opportunity to try and sharpen up my game a bit.

 

First impressions are that I was very impressed as we went over a session that I had recorded yesterday and Jesse picked out quite a few spots where I was leaking. A lot of it boiled down to my bet sizings and he did a really good job of explaining things in a pretty simple manner when it came to value betting and spots I were missing value. We also had some good discussion about playing HU and shorthanded and how it differs from FR.

 

Ive booked another session for a couple of weeks time which should give me chance to work on the areas that we talked about and hopefully we can see some improvement from there.

Link and details of Jesse`s blog:- http://www.cardrunners.com/blog/KnoxItAll

In Poker people short stack because they think it gives them an edge. When we buy in for full we are going to have to make decisions on the Flop, Turn, and River a lot of the time where as most of the short stacks play will be Pre-Flop and then on the Flop largely taking away any further decisions on the Turn and the River because by that time most of their stack will be in the middle making it hard for them to make `mistakes`. Go to any Poker forum and you wont have to search far to find someone complaining about playing against short stacks.

Short stacks are obviously a reality and for the time being are here to stay so rather than whinge and moan about them the best thing to do is to learn how to beat them with as large a stick as possible. This is what this article is aiming towards and i am going to use a nifty little piece of software called All In Expert to give you an idea of how we can exploit the leaks that most of them have.

We are going to use three different types of short stack for this, and we are going over shoving ranges in the first part(We open, shorty 3bets, we shove) and calling ranges in the second. Just a note that we are talking about playing against `pro` short stackers and not recreational fishy players and we are mainly talking about late position wars ie. Co/Btn/Sb opens. Now most of these type of players will be using a HUD of some sort and will see us playing something like 15/12 – 18/14 so we will be an ideal target for them to 3bet us.

So this is the scenario and all hands are 9 handed:-

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold’em – 9 players –
SB: $10.00

BB: $10.00

Hero (BTN): $28.69

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with X of diamonds X of spades

6 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, SB raises to $1.75, 1 fold, Hero Shoves What Range?

So the first villain we will tackle is 9/8 with a 4% 3bet and who is folding less than 60% to a 4bet. This type of shorty is basically 3betting based solely on his hand strength rather than attacking weak opens.

So first things first and we have to construct a 3bet range for him which is going to be pretty easy, once we have done that we need to construct a range that he will call with if we decide to shove against his 3bet, again for this type its going to be pretty easy. once we enter them in to All In Expert it will then give us a range with which we can profitably shove when he 3bets us.

This is the range i came up with, on the left we have the range i think he 3bets with and on the right we have the range which i think he calls a shove with:-

Once ive entered those ranges along with money in the pot plus amount the shorty would have to call, All In Expert came up with the range on the right that we can profitably shove against this villain type. Not surprising that its going to be very tight giving how tight a 3bet range he has. So here we can shove 2% of hands and show a profit.

Now everyone is going to realize against this villain we arnt going to exploit him by getting in to 4bet shoving wars with him but we are going to exploit him by constantly stealing his blinds knowing full well that when he does decide to 3bet us we will actually exploit him again by folding nearly all of our range comfortable in the fact that we are taking his blinds constantly and that we practically get to play the BTN twice having him on our left knowing he never gets out of line.

Next up we are looking at a villain playing 13/12 with a 7.5% 3bet who is 3betting on average 10-12% from BTN/SB/BB and is folding to 4bet more than 60%.

So same again i have to go through the ranges again and see what we can come up with, obviously this is going to be a touch more difficult to do because its going to be quite debatable as to how his range is weighted with bluffs and value.

These are the ranges i came up with:-

So ive gone for a 12% range and feel he may call a shove with about 5% of that range, now that may be a touch out as he may be a tad tighter with what he calls with. As we can now see from the results on the right, it now becomes profitable to shove with around 15% of our range. This range is going to include all PP`s along with a lot of hands that hold blockers to big hands.

So now we have 2 ways of exploiting this villain, hes probably still folding his blinds to us a bit too much but now we are starting to exploit his wide 3betting range by shoving on him quite frequently. Most of these type of villains are not going to be good enough to adjust to our tactics and those that try to will either tighten up way too much which means more money for us, or will loosen up too much which again is going to mean more money for us.

Now we get on to what is my personal favorite and that is the shorties playing pretty wild 18/16 with a 10% 3bet but are averaging about 18% from BTN/SB/BB and going as high as 30% in some cases against opens from CO/BTN/SB. The great thing about these guys is that most of them are still folding to 4bets a massively exploitable amount of the time and usually a lot more than 60%

So that said here is the ranges that i tried to put together for these guys:-

As we can see above ive gone for quite a wide 3bet range but still quite tight when it comes to calling a shove(some of these guys are even tighter) and the first time you run a simulation like this you think that you must have done it wrong and it cant really be profitable to shove nearly 100% of our range against these guys but as is shown its theoretically correct to be shoving 88% of our hands when it comes to facing a 3bet from a villain like this.

Now obviously we probably arnt going to take it to these extremes but you get the idea, we can shove a very wide range against these guys time and time again to abuse them and make good profit.

So thats just giving a pretty basic idea on how we can play back at the shorties and make their life hell. Id recommend anyone  who hasnt used the program before to download it and have a play with it as its a really cool piece of kit. In the next part im going to look at calling ranges when we 3bet a shorty and they shove.

All the best.

This is just a link to an old piece that i did on 2+2 all about tilt back in 2010. Hopefully it will be of some help to people and just reading through it a lot of it is still relevant to myself so it shouldnt be too outdated if at all.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78/micro-stakes-full-ring/six-steps-monkey-tilt-closer-look-tilt-898938/

This really was just a test post just to get things up and running but its also one of many good Phil Galfond videos so im going to leave it in and i guess its not a bad way to kick off a new blog and hopefully send me some run good.